A Democracy Drive Thread
Trump sold his tariffs as a win paid for by foreign countries. They are a tax on Americans: the importer pays it at the border and passes it on in higher prices — and when the Supreme Court ruled the tariffs illegal, the refunds went to companies, not the shoppers who paid.
Trump has described tariffs as foreign countries “paying” the United States — money flowing in, “trillions of dollars,” a “bonanza,” even $2,000 dividend checks. That is not how a tariff works. A tariff is a tax collected by U.S. Customs from the American company that imports the goods. Companies do not simply absorb it; they pass it on to the people who buy those goods, here at home. The evidence in this thread says so repeatedly: Goldman Sachs found consumers absorbing a rising share of the cost; Walmart said its costs rose “each week”; Yale’s Budget Lab put the bill at about $3,800 per household; the Federal Reserve’s chair attributed most of the remaining inflation to tariffs; and New York Fed economists found Americans paid about 90% of the 2025 tariffs — research the White House answered by saying its authors should be “disciplined.” Trump himself told parents their children could have “two dolls instead of 30,” and his administration quietly cut tariffs on beef and coffee when grocery prices angered voters. The Constitution gives Congress, not the president, the power to lay taxes and duties. Trump took that power for himself, declaring national emergencies so he could set, raise, pause and reverse tariffs by executive order and social-media post — sometimes, by his own account, because a foreign leader “rubbed me the wrong way.” In February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled those emergency tariffs illegal. The more than $160 billion in refunds went back to importers and retailers, not to the consumers who paid the higher prices. This thread tracks it in chronological order and with sources: the threats, the math behind the rates, the market crashes, the companies, farmers and households that paid, and the courts that ruled against him. The entries are presented in order so the pattern speaks for itself.
January 21, 2025
In his own words
Asked about NATO members like Spain that spend less than 2% of GDP on defense, Trump began “Spain is very low,” then veered into BRICS, the group founded by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. A Spanish government spokeswoman replied: “I can confirm that Spain is not in BRICS.”
February 1, 2025
On the ground
The February 1 executive orders cited “the public health crisis of deaths due to the use of fentanyl and other illicit drugs” and said each country had failed to stop traffickers. Canadian energy was set at 10%. The emergency claim became the legal basis for most of the tariffs that followed. Former senators, retired federal judges, a former attorney general and constitutional scholars later told the Court of International Trade the program was an “unprecedented seizure of legislative power.”
February 19, 2025
In his own words
Lutnick made the remark on “Jesse Watters Primetime” and the next day said on “America’s Newsroom” that tariffs would “earn us $700 billion a year… And there goes our deficit.” Trump had announced an “External Revenue Service” to collect tariff money and often praised the era before the 1913 income tax, when tariffs funded the government.
“His goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay.”
February 26, 2025
In his own words
“That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president,” Trump said. The European Commission replied that the EU is “the world’s largest free market” and has been “a boon for the United States.”
“Look, let’s be honest, the European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That’s the purpose of it, and they’ve done a good job of it. But now I’m president.”
March 4, 2025
On the ground
Trump first ordered the tariffs on February 1, 2025, citing a “national emergency” over fentanyl and migrants, then paused them for 30 days on February 3 after Canada pledged more border measures. On March 3 he said they would go forward, and at 12:01 a.m. on March 4 they took effect. Canada immediately imposed counter-tariffs on C$30 billion of U.S. goods, with Trudeau saying: “Donald, even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do.” Trump replied by calling him “Governor Trudeau” and threatening to raise tariffs further. Two days later, on March 6, Trump exempted goods covered by the USMCA trade deal for a month; Canada kept its counter-tariffs in place.
March 5, 2025
In his own words
Beijing had just announced retaliatory tariffs of up to 15% on U.S. goods starting March 10, plus new export restrictions. Hegseth said the U.S. was not seeking conflict but “those who long for peace must prepare for war.”
“Well, we’re prepared. Those who long for peace must prepare for war.”
March 12, 2025
In his own words
He complained about Ireland’s tax policies attracting U.S. drug companies and criticized the EU ruling that Apple owed Ireland billions in taxes.
“This beautiful island of five million people has got the entire US pharmaceutical industry in its grasp.”
March 13, 2025
In his own words
In a morning post Trump wrote: “If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES.”
“If this Tariff is not removed immediately, the U.S. will shortly place a 200% Tariff on all WINES, CHAMPAGNES, & ALCOHOLIC PRODUCTS COMING OUT OF FRANCE AND OTHER E.U. REPRESENTED COUNTRIES.”
March 28, 2025
On the ground
The 25% duty on foreign-built cars was set to take effect April 3, covering roughly half the vehicles sold in the U.S. According to people familiar with the call, Trump told executives the White House would look unfavorably on price increases. A day later he denied it (see next entry).
March 29, 2025
In his own words
Asked about the reported call, Trump said: “No, I never said that. I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars.” He called the 25% auto tariffs “permanent.”
“No, I never said that. I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American-made cars.”
April 2, 2025
On the ground
Trump signed Executive Order 14257, holding up a poster of rates he said reflected other countries’ tariffs, non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation. The 10% baseline began April 5 and the country rates April 9. The administration later revealed the calculation was built on each country’s trade deficit with the U.S.; economists said the formula had little to do with actual trade barriers.
On the ground
Both remote territories got the 10% rate. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Axios that Russia was excluded because there was no meaningful trade with it, and that Cuba, Belarus and North Korea already faced high tariffs and sanctions. U.S.–Russia goods trade was $3.5 billion in 2024 — more than with many countries on the list.
On the ground
Bondi’s financial disclosure, first reported by ProPublica, shows the sales plus $250,000–$500,000 in Trump Media warrants on April 2, without saying whether they came before or after the market closed. Trump Media fell 13% in the following days. Her ethics agreement gave her until early May to divest.
April 3, 2025
On the ground
The layoffs hit plants in Michigan and the Indiana Transmission, Kokomo Transmission and Kokomo Casting plants, which supply the paused Canadian and Mexican assembly lines. Windsor stopped for two weeks and Toluca for a month.
In his own words
The Dow fell more than 1,600 points. “The markets are going to boom, the stock is going to boom, the country is going to boom,” Trump said leaving the White House. “We have an operation, like when a patient gets operated on and it’s a big thing.”
“I think it’s going very well. It was an operation, like when a patient gets operated on and it’s a big thing.”
In his own words
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said it was “both astonishing and lamentable to hear this vice president make such ignorant and disrespectful remarks.” A hashtag about the remark became the top trending topic on Weibo, with more than 150 million views by April 18.
“We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture.”
On the ground
“Future investments, investments announced in the last weeks, should be suspended for a time for as long as the situation with the United States is not clarified,” Macron told French business leaders. Weeks earlier, CMA CGM had announced $20 billion in U.S. investment and Schneider Electric $700 million.
April 4, 2025
On the ground
The S&P 500 fell about 10% over two days. JPMorgan analysts put the odds of a global recession that year at 60%.
On the ground
Stock markets had lost more than $6 trillion in value since the announcement. Sen. Chuck Schumer said Trump was in a “billionaire bubble” while millions watched their savings sink.
April 6, 2025
In his own words
Economists and Apple suppliers said iPhone assembly could not realistically move to the U.S.
“The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little, little screws to make iPhones — that kind of thing is going to come to America.”
April 7, 2025
As his tariffs sent the markets crashing, he told worried Americans on Truth Social to stop panicking, coining the label “Panican” for them.
“Don't be Weak! Don't be Stupid!”
In his own words
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had made the “zero-for-zero” offer earlier that day. “We have a deficit with the European Union of $350 billion and it’s gonna disappear fast,” Trump told reporters.
April 8, 2025
In his own words
Hours before his country-specific tariffs took effect — including 104% on China — Trump mimicked foreign leaders: “Please, sir, make a deal. I’ll do anything.” He mocked Republicans such as Rep. Don Bacon backing a bill to require congressional approval of tariffs, saying they “want to grandstand” and “Congress takes over negotiating, sell America fast, because you’re going to go busted.” The next day he paused most of the tariffs for 90 days.
“These countries are calling us up, kissing my ass.”
April 9, 2025
Trump’s April 2, 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs wiped trillions from the market in days, pushing the S&P near bear-market territory. On the morning of April 9, Trump posted “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” on Truth Social; hours later the White House announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, and the S&P rocketed 9.5% in a single day, with Apple up about 15% and Nvidia about 19% the next session. His annual financial disclosure, released in mid-2026, later revealed his accounts had made 327 stock purchases — including Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet — on April 8, the day before the pause. Sen. Adam Schiff called for an insider-trading investigation. The White House says Trump does not direct his own trades and calls the accusations baseless, and legal experts are split on whether the post alone is illegal — but the sequence, from crash to “buy” to reversal to rally, is not in dispute.
April 17, 2025
On the ground
The Budget Lab estimated prices would rise 2.3% in the short run and household losses at the bottom of the income ladder would be about $1,700 a year. Food prices were projected to rise 4.5%, roughly triple recent grocery inflation, and apparel far more.
April 24, 2025
In his own words
Trump had said the 145% tariff on Chinese goods would come down “substantially” and that “everything’s active,” though his own Treasury secretary said no formal talks were under way. Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong said such claims “have no factual basis.” Trump replied: “They had meetings this morning… as usual, I think you have your reporting wrong.”
April 29, 2025
In an April 29, 2025 brief to the U.S. Court of International Trade, the Justice Department argued that Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs under an emergency-powers statute was “unreviewable” by the judiciary and that whether trade deficits constitute a national emergency was “beyond the courts' authority to resolve.” The court disagreed, soon freezing most of the tariffs as exceeding presidential power.
In his own words
Leavitt said she had just gotten off the phone with the president. Amazon said listing import charges had only been considered for its low-cost Haul store, “was never approved and is not going to happen.”
“This is a hostile and political act by Amazon.”
In his own words
Studies found importers and U.S. consumers paid most of the tariffs.
“Well, they did sign up for it, actually. And this is what I campaigned on.”
April 30, 2025
In his own words
Imports grew at a 41% pace, the fastest since 2020, as businesses rushed to beat the tariffs, subtracting about 5 percentage points from growth. The economy had grown at a 2.4% pace the previous quarter. The Dow fell about 400 points at the open.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s.”
In his own words
Trump had set a 145% tariff on Chinese goods earlier that month. Nearly 80% of toys sold in the U.S. are made in China. Republican Rep. Riley Moore also defended the higher prices, saying “we’re no longer going to barter [our children’s] future for cheap goods made in China.”
“Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.”
On the ground
Republicans Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul voted with Democrats.
May 4, 2025
In his own words
He said the American film industry was dying “a very fast death” and that he was authorizing Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative to begin the process immediately. Commerce Secretary Lutnick replied “We’re on it,” but neither gave details — including whether the tariff would apply to streaming.
“This is a concerted effort by other Nations and, therefore, a National Security threat. It is, in addition to everything else, messaging and propaganda.”
May 7, 2025
Diplomatic cables reported in May 2025 showed U.S. embassies and the State Department pressing countries facing steep Trump tariffs to clear regulatory hurdles for Musk's Starlink. Lesotho, hit with a 50% tariff, met with Starlink; Cambodia, facing 49%, signaled it would help U.S. firms including Starlink; and Secretary of State Marco Rubio instructed officials to push approvals. Starlink won deals in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, and elsewhere during the trade fight.
May 8, 2025
In his own words
Mattel said it would shift production of about 500 products out of China but was unlikely to move it to the U.S., and estimated tariffs could cost it $270 million that year. “That’s OK, let him go, and we’ll put a 100 percent tariff on his toys,” Trump said in the Oval Office.
“That’s OK, let him go, and we’ll put a 100 percent tariff on his toys, and he won’t sell one toy in the United States, and that’s their biggest market.”
May 12, 2025
In his own words
“I said, come on, we’re gonna do a lot of trade with you guys. Let’s stop it. If you stop it, we’ll do a trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not gonna do any trade,” Trump said, adding that “millions of people could have been killed.” Prime Minister Narendra Modi, speaking minutes later, did not mention the U.S., and India has said no foreign leader asked it to halt its operation. Trump repeated the claim for months.
“If you stop it, we’ll do a trade. If you don’t stop it, we’re not gonna do any trade.”
May 21, 2025
Eric Trump broke ground on a $1.5 billion Trump Organization golf-and-residential resort in Vietnam just as Hanoi raced to avoid a threatened 46% U.S. tariff. Vietnam expedited the project’s approvals; the tariff was subsequently reduced.
June 25, 2025
In his own words
Spain, as an EU member, doesn’t negotiate its own trade deals with the U.S. Trump added that Spain’s economy “could be blown right out of the water with something bad happening.”
July 6, 2025
In his own words
The summit’s opening statement had warned that rising tariffs threatened global trade. BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE.
July 7, 2025
On the ground
“If for any reason you decide to raise your Tariffs, then, whatever the number you choose to raise them by, will be added onto the 25% that we charge,” the letters said, adding that the rates “may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country.” Letters to other countries followed, with rates up to 40%.
“These tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country.”
July 8, 2025
In his own words
Commerce Secretary Lutnick said the copper tariff would match the 50% duties on steel and aluminum and should be in place by the end of July. At the same meeting Trump again said Fed Chair Jerome Powell should resign.
July 9, 2025
On the ground
The letters, posted on Truth Social, came a day after letters setting rates up to 40% on 14 countries including Bangladesh, Japan and South Korea.
In his own words
Trump’s letter also cited Brazil’s “attacks” on U.S. tech companies. The U.S. actually ran a trade surplus with Brazil — $650 million in the first quarter of 2025 alone, according to the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil. President Lula said Brazil would reciprocate and warned against interference in its courts.
“The trial should not be taking place — it is a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY!”
July 21, 2025
On the ground
Most of the mill’s lumber had gone to China and Vietnam. Owner Wilson Jones lost about 40% on $350,000–$400,000 of lumber already shipped to China. He voted for Trump three times. “When I say ‘Liberation Day,’ I can’t put enough snark in my voice,” he said. “We weren’t liberated.”
“When I say ‘Liberation Day,’ I can’t put enough snark in my voice. We weren’t liberated.”
July 22, 2025
On the ground
The tariff hit was largely responsible for a 21% drop in GM’s net income for the quarter.
July 31, 2025
On the ground
Trump called the 40-minute call “very successful.”
On the ground
Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te called the rate “provisional” and said “the 20% tariff rate was never Taiwan’s target to begin with.” The April 2 plan had proposed 32%.
August 6, 2025
On the ground
Trump said India was buying “massive amounts of Russian Oil” and reselling much of it “for big profits.” The extra 25% took effect August 27. India called the secondary tariffs unfair, and its state oil company said it would keep buying Russian crude.
“They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.”
On the ground
The one-of-a-kind gift bore Trump’s name, Cook’s signature and “MADE IN USA.” The investment pledge, made under threat of tariffs, raised Apple’s U.S. commitment to $600 billion over four years.
August 7, 2025
On the ground
Even after a July deal cut the U.S. tariff on Japanese cars to 15%, that was still six times what automakers paid at the start of 2025. Across 14 major automakers, second-quarter operating earnings fell by a combined $12 billion.
August 8, 2025
On the ground
The jets could cost up to 7.3 billion Swiss francs ($9.1 billion). “A country which throws rocks at us in trade shouldn’t get a present,” said Green lawmaker Balthasar Glättli. Spain had already ruled out the F-35, and Canada and Portugal had expressed second thoughts.
In his own words
Trump posted that a “Radical Left Court” ruling against him would make it “impossible to ever recover.” In a letter to the Federal Circuit, Solicitor General D. John Sauer wrote that a year earlier the U.S. “was a dead country, and now, because of the trillions of dollars being paid by countries that have so badly abused us, America is a strong, financially viable, and respected country again,” and warned that undoing the trade deals “could lead to a 1929-style result.” The Court of International Trade had already ruled the tariffs unlawful in May.
“It would be 1929 all over again, a GREAT DEPRESSION!”
August 11, 2025
On the ground
The truce kept the extra U.S. tariff on Chinese goods at 30% and China’s on U.S. goods at 10%, instead of the 145% and 125% that would have amounted to a trade embargo.
August 12, 2025
In his own words
Chief economist Jan Hatzius’s note estimated consumers had paid 22% of tariff costs through June and would pay 67% by October. Goldman stood by the research.
“I think that David should go out and get himself a new Economist or, maybe, he ought to just focus on being a DJ, and not bother running a major Financial Institution.”
August 21, 2025
In his own words
“We’ve continued to see our costs increase each week, which we expect will continue into the third and fourth quarters,” McMillon said on the earnings call, as the retailer restocked at post-tariff prices.
“We’ve continued to see our costs increase each week, which we expect will continue into the third and fourth quarters.”
August 25, 2025
In his own words
Trump spoke before meeting South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. China dominates the supply of the magnets used in phones, cars and weapons.
“They have to give us magnets. If they don’t give us magnets, then we have to charge them a 200 percent tariff or something.”
September 18, 2025
On the ground
A White House official said the decision was not final.
September 25, 2025
In his own words
“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit,” Trump said. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins had said using “tariff income” was “absolutely a potential.” China imported zero U.S. soybeans in September — the first time since 2018 — buying from Brazil and Argentina instead; the American Soybean Association said there were “zero new crop export orders.”
“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit.”
On the ground
Posting on Truth Social, Trump said foreign furniture makers were “flooding” the U.S. The duties began October 1.
October 7, 2025
On the ground
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it “a creative solution.” The administration cited Section 32 of the 1935 Agricultural Adjustment Act, which sets aside customs receipts for farm programs. Experts questioned whether it could redirect the money without Congress, since no fiscal 2026 appropriation had been enacted.
October 9, 2025
In his own words
Spain was the only NATO member not to commit to the 5% target. NATO has no mechanism to expel members.
““Maybe you should throw them out of NATO, frankly.””
October 14, 2025
In his own words
China had bought no U.S. soybeans since May, according to the USDA, shifting to Brazil and South America. A later analysis of USDA data found Ohio’s farm exports to China down nearly three-quarters in a year, with soybean exports down 85%.
“I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act.”
October 17, 2025
In his own words
The threat was a response to China’s expanded export controls on rare earths. “They forced me to do that,” Trump said.
“It’s not sustainable, but that’s what the number is.”
October 20, 2025
On the ground
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association said a deal of that size “would undercut the very foundation of our cattle industry.”
November 4, 2025
Swiss executives presented Trump with a personalized $130,000 gold bar stamped “45/47” and a Rolex desk clock; days later the U.S. cut Swiss tariffs from 39% to 15%. Swiss lawmakers filed a criminal complaint over the gifts, and Sen. Ron Wyden demanded answers on whether they violated rules on gifts to public officials.
November 9, 2025
In his own words
Trump said everyone except “high income people” would get the money but gave no details. The government collected $195 billion in customs duties in fiscal 2025. The “trillions” figure matched decade-long projections, not money collected. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told ABC he had not spoken to Trump about a dividend.
“People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS!”
November 14, 2025
On the ground
The executive order, retroactive to November 13, exempted “certain food not grown in the United States.”
December 8, 2025
On the ground
Up to $11 billion was to go as one-time payments to crop farmers through a new Farmer Bridge Assistance program. Crop prices were still near their lowest since 2020 and Chinese purchases slow.
January 7, 2026
In his own words
Trump had posted on November 9, 2025 that “a dividend of at least $2000 a person… will be paid to everyone,” and raised it again at a December 2 Cabinet meeting. In the interview he added: “The tariff money is so substantial… that I’ll be able to do $2,000 sometime, I would say toward the end of the year.”
“I did do that? When did I do that?”
January 12, 2026
In his own words
Trump claimed the U.S. would have to pay back “many Hundreds of Billions of Dollars” and “Trillions” more counting private investments. Earlier he had urged supporters to “pray that the United States Supreme Court has the Wisdom and Genius to allow Tariffs.”
“If the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE’RE SCREWED!”
January 13, 2026
In his own words
Iran’s main trading partners include China, Turkey, Iraq, the UAE and India. China accounts for more than 90% of Iran’s oil trade by analysts’ estimates.
January 17, 2026
President Donald Trump announced sanctions and tariffs against several European countries that reject US claims to Greenland, a Danish territory. Trump claimed the US needs possession of the island to counter Russian and Chinese threats and to develop a missile defense system called the 'Golden Dome'.
January 21, 2026
In his own words
Trump described then-President Karin Keller-Sutter as “nice, but very aggressive.” He repeated the story to Fox Business in February: “I didn’t really like the way she talked to us.” The rate was cut to 15% in a November deal.
“I put the tariffs at 39% and then all hell broke loose.”
January 29, 2026
On the ground
Trump declares a national emergency over Cuba and authorizes tariffs on any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to the island. He invoked the same emergency-powers law, IEEPA, behind his global tariffs.
February 10, 2026
On the ground
The National Emergencies Act requires Congress to be able to vote on ending a declared emergency. Speaker Mike Johnson’s rule would have frozen the count of days from February 10 through July 31, 2026. “Today the Speaker is trying to pass a resolution that literally says a day is not a day,” Rep. Thomas Massie posted. Reps. Massie, Don Bacon and Kevin Kiley voted no.
“Today the Speaker is trying to pass a resolution that literally says a day is not a day, just to avoid voting on the emergencies that underpin the tariffs.”
February 12, 2026
On the ground
The study of January–November 2025 import data found prices of tariffed imports rose about 11% more than untariffed goods; foreign suppliers did not cut prices as officials predicted. The Congressional Budget Office projected Americans would pay 95% of tariff costs, and Kiel Institute and NBER research found 96% and nearly 100%.
February 18, 2026
In his own words
Hassett said the paper drew “highly partisan” conclusions from analysis “that wouldn’t be accepted in a first-semester econ class.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said: “This is just another step to try to compromise the Fed’s independence.”
“The people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined.”
February 20, 2026
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the emergency-powers statute did not authorize Trump's global tariffs — with his own appointees Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett joining the majority. The administration responded by attacking the Court: Vice President JD Vance called the decision “lawlessness from the Court, plain and simple,” and Trump said the justices he had appointed “sicken me,” adding that he was “ashamed” of members of the Court for lacking “the courage to do what's right.”
“Two of the people that voted for that, I appointed, and they sicken me. They sicken me because they're bad for our country.”
On the ground
Writing for the majority in Learning Resources v. Trump, Chief Justice John Roberts said a power of that “breadth, history, and constitutional context” required “clear congressional authorization”: “Our task today is to decide only whether the power to regulate importation embraces the power to impose tariffs. It does not.” Justices Thomas, Alito and Kavanaugh dissented.
February 21, 2026
In his own words
Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 allows a tariff of up to 15% for 150 days. Trump first set it at 10%, then raised it. “Our Supreme Court has made these countries very happy, but, as the court pointed out, I have the absolute right to charge tariffs in another form, and have already started to do so,” he wrote.
“Our Supreme Court has made these countries very happy, but, as the court pointed out, I have the absolute right to charge tariffs in another form, and have already started to do so.”
February 23, 2026
On the ground
The complaint names Customs and Border Protection and the United States. FedEx had expected about a $1 billion hit from tariffs in 2026. The ruling gave no guidance on how refunds would work.
February 27, 2026
In his own words
He called the refunds an undeserved “windfall.” The Supreme Court almost never grants rehearings. “You can’t just ask for a do over because you dislike the outcome,” said former prosecutor Dave Aronberg.
“Is a Rehearing or Readjudication of this case possible???”
March 4, 2026
On the ground
Judge Richard Eaton ruled that “all importers of record whose entries were subject to IEEPA duties are entitled to the benefit of the Learning Resources decision,” not just those who sued.
March 5, 2026
On the ground
The suit, Oregon et al. v. Trump, is led by New York, Oregon, California and Arizona and joined by the governors of Kentucky and Pennsylvania. It argues the tariffs are applied inconsistently and discriminate between countries, and seeks refunds for the states.
March 6, 2026
On the ground
CBP rejected post-summary corrections and suspended protests over already-liquidated entries. Nintendo, which had delayed Switch 2 pre-orders over the tariffs, sued for a full refund plus interest. Months later the administration had directed Treasury to pay out just $24 billion of the $95 billion in refund claims CBP had accepted, prompting Sen. Elizabeth Warren to demand answers.
March 18, 2026
In his own words
The Fed held rates and raised its inflation forecast. “We had the tariff shock, we had the pandemic and now we have an energy shock,” Powell said, referring to the Iran war.
“Some big chunk of that, between a half and three-quarters, is actually tariffs.”
April 12, 2026
In his own words
Citing intelligence reports of Chinese shoulder-fired missiles bound for Iran, Trump told Fox News: “if they are caught, we will impose a 50% tariff.” The April 8 threat came hours after a two-week U.S.–Iran ceasefire.
August 28, 2026
On the ground
Shippers UPS, FedEx and DHL, which billed tariffs as separate fees, pledged to return refunds to customers. Retailers that built the tariffs into shelf prices largely kept the money: Home Depot said it would use its $730 million to cover fuel costs, and Walmart said its $2.9 billion would go to lower prices rather than refunds. Costco and Nintendo face class actions from shoppers. “It’s all just a giant transfer from consumers to corporations,” one analyst said.
“It’s all just a giant transfer from consumers to corporations.”