A Democracy Drive Thread
Since winning the 2024 election the president has called for absorbing Canada as the “51st state,” launched a trade war against America’s closest ally under a dubious emergency law, mocked its leaders as “governors,” and watched Canadians turn away from the United States in response.
Canada is a sovereign nation, a founding NATO member, America’s partner in NORAD since 1958 and, before 2025, its largest export market. There was no crisis between the two countries that called for any of this. This thread records, in order and with sources, the president’s campaign to pressure and annex it — the “51st state” taunts, the tariffs and the threats — and the measurable damage that followed, so the trajectory and its costs are visible on their own.
December 10, 2024
In his own words
After Trudeau made a surprise trip to Mar-a-Lago in late November 2024 to discuss Trump’s threat of a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods, Trump posted: “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in-depth talks on Tariffs and Trade.” Canadian officials said Trump had floated at the dinner that Canada could become the 51st state if tariffs crippled its economy.
“It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.”
January 7, 2025
In his own words
One day after Trudeau announced his resignation, Trump told reporters he would not use military force against Canada but would use “economic force,” saying: “You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security.” In the same press conference he refused to rule out military force to take Greenland and the Panama Canal. Trudeau answered that there “isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States.”
“You get rid of that artificially drawn line and you take a look at what that looks like, and it would also be much better for national security.”
In his own words
He said, “We need Greenland for national security purposes,” as Donald Trump Jr. was visiting Greenland that day. At the same press conference he said he would use “economic force” against Canada.
“I’m not going to commit to that. It might be that you’ll have to do something.”
February 9, 2025
In his own words
In an interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier that aired before the Super Bowl on February 9, 2025, Trump said his talk of making Canada the 51st state was serious, repeating the false claim that the U.S. pays $200 billion a year to “subsidize” Canada. He had earlier said that “if people wanted to play the game right, it would be 100% certain that they’d become a state.” Days later White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called Canada “our soon-to-be 51st state” ahead of a U.S.–Canada hockey final.
“Yeah, it is.”
February 25, 2025
On the ground
In late February 2025 the Financial Times reported that Peter Navarro — one of Trump’s closest advisers and his trade chief — had pushed for the United States to remove Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network it shares with the U.K., Australia and New Zealand, as Trump escalated tariff and annexation pressure on Ottawa. Navarro denied the report on February 25, 2025, calling it “nonsense” and “crazy” and insisting the U.S. would “never, ever jeopardize our national security … with allies like Canada.”
March 4, 2025
On the ground
Trump first ordered the tariffs on February 1, 2025, citing a “national emergency” over fentanyl and migrants, then paused them for 30 days on February 3 after Canada pledged more border measures. On March 3 he said they would go forward, and at 12:01 a.m. on March 4 they took effect. Canada immediately imposed counter-tariffs on C$30 billion of U.S. goods, with Trudeau saying: “Donald, even though you’re a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do.” Trump replied by calling him “Governor Trudeau” and threatening to raise tariffs further. Two days later, on March 6, Trump exempted goods covered by the USMCA trade deal for a month; Canada kept its counter-tariffs in place.
March 7, 2025
In his own words
Speaking in the Oval Office on March 7, 2025, Trump said Canada’s “roughly 250%” dairy tariff was “taking advantage of our farmers” and promised to match it, along with new tariffs on Canadian lumber, possibly “as early as” that day. Canada’s high dairy tariffs only kick in above tariff-free quotas set under the USMCA, the trade deal Trump renegotiated in his first term. Canada’s government said no U.S. dairy imports had ever been subject to the higher rate because the U.S. had not filled its quotas.
March 11, 2025
On the ground
On March 10, 2025, Ontario Premier Doug Ford imposed a 25% surcharge on electricity Ontario sells to about 1.5 million U.S. homes and businesses in Michigan, New York and Minnesota, in response to Trump’s tariffs. The next morning Trump posted that he had instructed Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick “to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA,” and threatened to “permanently shut down” Canada’s auto industry. Within hours Ford suspended the surcharge after a call with Lutnick, and the White House said the 50% rate would not take effect.
March 15, 2025
On the ground
On March 15, 2025, Carney asked Defence Minister Bill Blair to assess whether the F-35 deal with Lockheed Martin and the U.S. government was still in Canada’s interest, including whether all 88 jets needed to be F-35s. Canada remained legally committed to the first 16 aircraft. The review dragged on well past its promised end-of-summer deadline, and by 2026 Ottawa was exploring a mixed fleet with dozens of Swedish Gripens.
March 18, 2025
On the ground
Visiting Iqaluit, Nunavut, Carney announced that Canada would spend more than C$6 billion on an Arctic over-the-horizon radar system developed with Australia, calling Australia a “long-standing defence and security partner.” The system is intended to detect air and maritime threats over the Arctic. Canada and Australia formalized terms in June 2026 for Canada to buy components from BAE Systems Australia.
March 19, 2025
In his own words
In a March 19, 2025 Fox News interview with Laura Ingraham, asked why he was tougher on Canada than on U.S. adversaries, Trump answered, “Only because it’s meant to be our 51st state,” and called Canada “one of the nastiest countries to deal with.” He justified it with the false claim that the U.S. “subsidizes Canada by $200 billion a year” — a figure that vastly inflates the actual 2024 U.S. goods-trade deficit with Canada of roughly $63 billion.
“Only because it’s meant to be our 51st state. One of the nastiest countries to deal with is Canada.”
April 11, 2025
On the ground
Stemming from a January 20, 2025 executive order, the rule took effect April 11, 2025. Foreign nationals in the U.S. for 30 days or longer must register with the Department of Homeland Security and carry proof of registration; failure can bring fines of up to $5,000, up to six months in jail, or both. Canada updated its travel advice to warn citizens. The administration said it was simply enforcing an existing law.
April 23, 2025
In his own words
At an Oval Office signing ceremony on April 23, 2025, five days before Canada’s federal election, Trump claimed Canada “would cease to exist as a country” if the United States stopped buying its goods, and repeated that the U.S. needs nothing from Canada — not its autos, not its oil. Returning to his annexation theme, he added, “I have to be honest, as a state, it works great.”
“I have to be honest, as a state, it works great.”
April 28, 2025
In his own words
On the morning of Canada’s federal election, April 28, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social urging Canadians to “elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half” and promising their car, steel, aluminum, lumber and energy industries would “QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America.” Canadian leaders across parties rejected the appeal; the Liberals won the election in a result widely read as a backlash to Trump’s annexation threats and tariffs.
“…if Canada becomes the cherished 51st State of the United States of America.”
June 16, 2025
In his own words
Sitting beside Prime Minister Mark Carney on June 16, 2025, Trump said removing Russia from the G8 was “a very big mistake” and that “you wouldn’t have a war right now if you had Russia in,” blaming Obama and “a person named Trudeau.” Russia was suspended in 2014 after it seized Crimea from Ukraine, under Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper; Trudeau did not become prime minister until November 2015. Trump left the summit early.
“They threw Russia out, which I claimed was a very big mistake.”
September 30, 2025
In his own words
In a speech to senior military leaders abruptly called to Marine Corps Base Quantico from postings around the world, Trump said: “Canada called me a couple of weeks ago, they want to be part of it, to which I said, ‘Well, why don’t you just join our country. You become 51 — become the 51st state — and you get it for free.’” He said Canada was having “a tough time” because of his tariffs and cited a cost to Canada of $61 billion, later $71 billion, to join the system otherwise.
“Well, why don’t you just join our country. You become 51 — become the 51st state — and you get it for free.”
October 23, 2025
On the ground
On October 23, 2025, Trump announced on Truth Social that he was ending all trade negotiations with Canada “effective immediately,” after the province of Ontario ran a U.S. television ad featuring audio of Ronald Reagan warning that tariffs “hurt every American worker and consumer.” Trump branded the ad “FAKE” and accused Canada of trying to influence a Supreme Court case on the legality of his tariffs. Days later he raised tariffs on Canada by an additional 10% over the ad. Ontario paused the campaign — but only after it aired during World Series games.
October 27, 2025
In his own words
Asked on October 27, 2025 about the Ontario government’s TV ad, which used Ronald Reagan’s own words warning that tariffs hurt American workers, Trump said: “I don’t care. Whether it’s provincial or Canada itself, they all knew exactly what the ad was. The prime minister knew what the ad was. I don’t want to meet with him. I’m not gonna be meeting with him for a while.” He had already cut off all trade talks and raised tariffs on Canada another 10% over the ad. Carney later said he apologized to Trump for it.
“I don’t want to meet with him. I’m not gonna be meeting with him for a while.”
December 1, 2025
On the ground
October 2025 data showed U.S.-bound trips from Canadian airports down 8.9% year over year to 1.2 million travellers, even as total Canadian air traffic rose 4.5% and domestic travel within Canada rose 8.5%. Canadian return trips by car from the U.S. had fallen even more sharply. The U.S. Travel Association named the Canadian boycott the primary driver of a projected $5.7 billion drop in international tourism spending in the U.S.
January 20, 2026
On the ground
In a post shortly after midnight on January 20, 2026 — the first anniversary of his second inauguration — Trump shared on Truth Social a digitally altered image showing a map of the Americas with Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela draped in the U.S. flag. The picture was doctored from an August 18, 2025 White House photograph of Trump with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European and NATO leaders reviewing a Russia-Ukraine map. Trump reshared the same image on July 14, 2026. The posts drew sharp rebukes in Canada, whose leaders have repeatedly rejected his suggestion that the country become the “51st state.”
January 21, 2026
In his own words
In his January 21, 2026 address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Trump attacked Canada a day after Prime Minister Mark Carney received a standing ovation for a speech widely read as a rebuke of Trump. Pointing to his planned continent-wide “Golden Dome” missile-defense system, Trump said it would “by its very nature [be] defending Canada,” that “Canada gets a lot of freebies from us,” and that “Canada lives because of the United States” — complaining that Carney “wasn’t so grateful.”
“Canada gets a lot of freebies from us, by the way. They should be grateful. Canada lives because of the United States.”
January 29, 2026
On the ground
Leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project said they met State Department officials in Washington on April 22, September 29 and December 16, 2025, discussing border security, pensions, taxes, converting to U.S. currency and whether the U.S. would extend a $500 billion credit line to an independent Alberta. The meetings were first reported by the Financial Times in late January 2026. Days earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had called Alberta “a natural partner for the U.S.” The administration said no senior officials attended and no commitments were made. British Columbia Premier David Eby called seeking foreign help to break up the country “treason.”
February 10, 2026
On the ground
On February 10, 2026, Trump threatened to withhold the U.S. permit needed to open the $4.7 billion Gordie Howe International Bridge between Detroit and Windsor, Ontario, saying that given all the U.S. has done for Canada it should own “perhaps, at least one half of this asset.” Canada had fronted the full construction cost and agreed to split toll revenue with Michigan. After the standoff, the two sides reached a deal and the bridge opened on July 27, 2026.
February 22, 2026
On the ground
Following the U.S. men’s 2–1 overtime win over Canada at the Milan Cortina Olympics, the White House’s official X account posted an image of a bald eagle with its talons in a Canada goose. Early the next morning Trump posted a minute-long AI video on Truth Social showing himself on the ice scoring against Team Canada and pummeling Canadian players. The posts were aimed at Justin Trudeau’s 2025 line “You can’t take our country — and you can’t take our game.” A White House TikTok also used AI to make U.S. player Brady Tkachuk appear to trash-talk Canadians; Tkachuk said, “It’s clearly fake, because it’s not my voice and not my lips moving.”
February 23, 2026
On the ground
More than 75% of Canada’s exports go to the United States. Citing Trump’s tariffs and threats against Canadian sovereignty, Carney set out to diversify; he said Canada had signed 12 trade agreements across four continents in six months. In India, Carney and Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans for a comprehensive economic partnership and a uranium supply agreement.
March 4, 2026
On the ground
Since March 2025, nearly all provincial liquor stores pulled American wine, beer and spirits from their shelves in response to Trump’s tariffs. U.S. wine exports to Canada fell 97.2% in May 2025 and 96.8% in June 2025 compared with a year earlier. U.S. Census Bureau data showed a $343–357 million drop for the year, about 77–78%. New sales to other countries came nowhere close to making up the difference.
March 11, 2026
In his own words
In a March 2026 Truth Social post ostensibly about fighting invasive Asian carp in the Great Lakes, Trump listed the governors he would enlist — “Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, New York and of course, the future Governor of Canada, Mark Carney.” It was not the first time he had demoted Canada’s prime minister to a “governor,” reviving a jab he had used on Carney in January and earlier on Justin Trudeau as part of his push to make Canada the 51st state.
“…of course, the future Governor of Canada, Mark Carney.”
May 18, 2026
On the ground
Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby announced the Department of War was “pausing the Permanent Joint Board on Defense to reassess how this forum benefits shared North American defense,” saying Canada had not made credible progress on defense spending. The board, established in August 1940 during the Second World War, meets twice a year to advise both governments. Carney said Canada would keep coordinating with the U.S. while “diversifying our defence co-operation” with NATO partners.
June 1, 2026
In his own words
Canada entered a technical recession on May 29, 2026, its first since 2020. On the night of June 1, Trump posted a link to the Bloomberg article with the words “51st State.” U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra reshared it. Ontario Premier Doug Ford replied: “Canada will never be the 51st state. Canada is not for sale.” Carney said the government would not respond to every post.
“51st State”
July 14, 2026
On the ground
On July 14, 2026, Trump posted the doctored map image again on Truth Social: the same digitally altered August 2025 photograph — faked to show Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela covered by the American flag — that he had first shared in January 2026. The reshare came amid his renewed war with Iran and escalating U.S. pressure on Venezuela, and drew fresh condemnation in Canada.